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CESifo Economic Studies Advance Access published online on October 29, 2008
CESifo Economic Studies, doi:10.1093/cesifo/ifn030
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© The Author 2008. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Ifo Institute for Economic Research, Munich. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oxfordjournals.org

What Explains Germany's Rebounding Export Market Share?

Stephan Danninger* and Fred Joutz{dagger}

* Research Department, IMF, Washington, DC, USA, email: sdanninger{at}imf.org
{dagger} Department of Economics, The George Washington University, Washington, DC, USA, e-mail: bmark{at}gwu.ed

Germany's export market share increased since 2000, while most industrial countries experienced declines. This study explores four explanations and evaluates their empirical contributions: (i) improved cost competitiveness, (ii) ties to fast growing trading partners, (iii) increased demand for capital goods and (iv) regionalized production of goods (e.g. off-shoring). An export model is estimated covering the period 1993–2005. The dominant factors explaining the increase in market share are trade relationships with fast growing countries and regionalized production in the export sector. Improved cost competitiveness had a comparatively smaller impact. There is no conclusive evidence supporting the increased demand for capital goods hypothesis. (JEL codes: C22, F41).

Key Words: International trade • export • cointegration • bazaar economy


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